OpenAI annualized revenue nears $50 billion, $20B short of reports
Per the FT, OpenAI annualized revenue neared $50 billion in September, $20 billion below the widely cited figure; Nvidia and Oracle shares slipped.
OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was “approaching $50 billion” as of September, according to a Financial Times report published October 8 — about $20 billion below the roughly $70 billion figure widely circulated a week earlier. Per CNBC, shares of AI-infrastructure names Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave slipped on the news; Bloomberg then reported that OpenAI still expects to reach $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026. Same company, same year, two figures 40 percent apart — that gap is the real story.
Key points
- A $20 billion gap: the FT-reported figure (near $50B, September) sits well below the ~$70B number Axios and others circulated since September 29.
- Different yardsticks: The Information points out that ARR is computed differently across labs — Anthropic counts cloud partners’ resale revenue, OpenAI does not — so side-by-side comparisons mislead.
- The market reacted: CNBC tied the correction to weakness in Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave; Bloomberg says OpenAI still targets $70B by year-end.
Background
The $70 billion figure had been treated as settled fact by investors for a week after Axios reported it on September 29. It surfaced in comparisons with Anthropic, whose annualized run-rate CNBC put at about $65 billion in July — a number that counts cloud partners’ sales, an accounting choice OpenAI does not make. We previously covered the leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus, another data point in the pre-IPO revenue-narrative race. Both companies are telling revenue stories ahead of listings, which is exactly when metric definitions get stretched.
OpenAI’s own fundraising has been just as aggressive. TechCrunch recaps a $122 billion round the company closed in March, with SoftBank the largest backer (see our SoftBank final-tranche coverage); TechCrunch also cites reports that a rumored IPO has slipped to early 2027. Leaked 2025 financials showed roughly $13 billion of revenue against heavier spending.
The facts
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI annualized revenue (Sept) | approaching $50B | Financial Times, Oct 8 |
| Widely cited figure since Sept 29 | about $70B | Axios and others |
| Gap | about $20B | TechCrunch roundup |
| Anthropic run-rate (July) | about $65B | CNBC (counts cloud partners’ sales) |
| Leaked 2025 revenue | about $13B | TechCrunch (leaked financials) |
| OpenAI’s latest stance | still targets $70B by end of 2026 | Bloomberg, Oct 9 |
Two facts must be kept apart: the FT number is a September annualization, a point-in-time reading; the Bloomberg number is the company’s forecast for year-end. Both can be true at once. The Information frames the episode as a flaw of the ARR metric itself — annualize one month and extrapolate, and small curve distortions become billion-dollar errors during rapid growth.
What others say
CNBC made the market reaction concrete: the dip concentrated in companies that have pledged future capacity to AI demand — the direct downstream of the revenue narrative. Bloomberg offered OpenAI’s side: people familiar say the company is still operating on a path to $70B by year-end, so $50B should be read as a September marker, not a full-year verdict. The Information aims at the metric, warning that any comparison subtracting OpenAI’s ARR from Anthropic’s is unreliable. Chinese business media Huxiu picked up the story with a “revenue shrinks by $20 billion” framing and connected it to the global tech selloff.
Our take
For working developers this changes little day to day; for the industry’s financing narrative it matters a lot. Trillions in AI infrastructure investment rest on revenue growth curves, and this episode proves the gap between numbers given privately to investors, numbers echoed by media, and the company’s own forecasts can reach $20 billion. The next time a headline annualizes OpenAI past a nation-state’s GDP, ask which metric and which month. Worth watching: if IPO pricing documents standardize the definition, the $50 billion marker will be backtested endlessly. Honest uncertainty: the FT original is paywalled, so we relied on cross-checked reporting; OpenAI is private and none of these figures are audited.