Samsung call: 2027 HBM supply fully booked at target prices, tight through 2028
Samsung says 2027 HBM supply volume is booked at target prices, with 10 LTAs signed and DRAM tight through 2028.
Samsung Electronics held its third-quarter 2026 earnings call on the morning of October 29 and reported numbers no tech company has hit before: KRW 195.25 trillion in quarterly revenue and KRW 107.44 trillion in operating profit, the latter up 783.1% year over year — the first time any tech company has cleared KRW 100 trillion in quarterly operating profit. For anyone buying memory, though, the two lines that matter came off the call itself: Samsung’s 2027 HBM supply volume is fully booked at target prices, and DRAM supply is expected to stay tight through 2028. The official call recording and materials are linked in sourceUrls.
Key points
- 2027 HBM supply volume is fully booked. Samsung said next year’s HBM supply volume is committed, with pricing negotiations “completed at target levels that reflect our product competitiveness,” and major customers still asking for more.
- LTAs: 10 signed, 10 in talks. The memory business has multiyear supply agreements with 10 major customers and is negotiating with 10 more, several near completion; the goal is long-term contracts covering 60–70% of capacity by 2030, expanding from hyperscalers to mobile, automotive and networking buyers.
- Tight through 2028. Management expects 2027 AI infrastructure capex to hit a historic high, with AI demand “far exceeding industry supply compared with 2026” — and DRAM supply still tight in 2028.
Background
This call is the latest primary data point on the memory-shortage arc we’ve been tracking since early October, when Micron’s CEO said 75% of its 2027 output was already locked in (memory shortage through 2028). Three days before Samsung spoke, the Bank of Korea quantified the other side of the same ledger: if US hyperscalers pull back on AI spending, Korean chip exports could come in up to $100 billion below forecast (BOK’s warning). Suppliers say they can’t build fast enough; the central bank is modeling what happens if demand breaks. Both are reading the same supply-demand table.
The day before, SK hynix had reported its own record quarter and said its DRAM and HBM are sold out through 2029, with shortage persisting into 2030 — a more aggressive read than Samsung’s. When the two biggest memory makers give answers that differ only in degree, that itself is the finding: the shortage is consensus, and the argument is only about how long it lasts.
The facts
The financials, per Yonhap reading from the official disclosure: Q3 revenue of KRW 195.25 trillion (+126.9% YoY), operating profit of KRW 107.44 trillion (+783.1%), net profit of KRW 75.13 trillion (+514.6%). It is the fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue and profit. The semiconductor division booked KRW 106.5 trillion of operating profit — 99.1% of the group total. Samsung is, functionally, a memory company with a phone business attached. That phone business (Device eXperience) lost KRW 800 billion in the quarter, which the company attributes to rising component costs.
Operational figures from the call, as relayed by multiple outlets:
| Item | Reading | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 HBM | Supply volume fully committed; pricing settled at target levels | Multiple, consistent |
| LTAs | 10 signed, 10 in talks; 60–70% of capacity by 2030 | Multiple, consistent |
| Supply outlook | Tighter in 2027; DRAM still tight in 2028 | Multiple, consistent |
| Q3 HBM4 | Revenue up more than 3× QoQ; 60% of total HBM revenue | IT Home, ifeng, BigGo |
| Q3 ASP | DRAM +20% QoQ, NAND nearly +10% | IT Home, ifeng, BigGo |
| Q4 guidance | DRAM bit shipments +15–20%, NAND about +15% | IT Home, ifeng, BigGo |
The cost side is capex: KRW 76.8 trillion for chips in 2026, up 62% (per Reuters), within a group plan of KRW 84.4 trillion, with a further sharp increase planned for 2027. But management poured cold water on what that money buys: new capacity additions are unlikely to lift bit production in the short term, because converting wafers from standard DRAM to HBM is a physical constraint on supply — HBM dies are larger and carry more metal layers, so every wafer that goes to HBM is one fewer making DIMMs. That is how “record capex” and “no relief” can both be true at once.
The 6.2% share-price drop the same morning was about shareholder returns, not the memory business: of the KRW 90–110 trillion 2026 return program, only 35 trillion has been distributed or committed, and the next policy waits on a late-January board meeting. Analysts had expected KRW 87.01 trillion in net profit (Yonhap Infomax survey); the actual 75.13 trillion fell short, and neither source checked here explains that gap. Separately, analysts said Samsung’s foundry business remained at a loss, weighing on its chip division earnings (per Reuters).
What others say
Analysts read the selloff as Samsung losing a rhetoric contest, not a business contest. Morningstar’s Jing Jie Yu told Reuters (via Business Times) the drop likely reflected Samsung’s shortage-duration view being “marginally less bullish than SK Hynix’s commentary yesterday.” An analyst at BNK Investment & Securities noted SK hynix “did quite a lot more than expected” the day before while Samsung mostly repeated existing guidance. CLSA pointed to the deferred shareholder-return decision as the near-term disappointment.
It’s worth lining up the three forecasts: SK hynix says capacity is sold out through 2029 and shortage lasts into 2030; Samsung says its 2027 HBM supply volume is fully booked and tightness continues through 2028; and Reuters adds the counterweight — as long-term contracts rise and high prices dent smartphone and PC maker demand, memory price gains could slow. The most bullish call, the manufacturer’s conservative call, and a demand-destruction brake are all on the table at once.
IT Home’s relay of the call adds a telling detail: rolling renewal demand has exceeded Samsung’s expectations, and some customers want additional supply within the terms of existing agreements. Buyers aren’t waiting for new capacity — they’re bidding for existing allocation.
Our take
If you build machines or spec servers for model work, this call pushes your cost curve out another year: Samsung’s 2027 HBM supply volume has buyers committed, 2028 offers no relief, and workstations and servers without LTA protection buy at spot prices. Our take from October 1 — treat memory as a quarterly-tracked risk item, not a line in the BOM — hasn’t aged a day. With Samsung’s numbers, the Micron and SK hynix readings have become a three-manufacturer consensus.
One open question sits in the technology roadmaps: Micron last week skipped 4F² DRAM in favor of lithography and wafer bonding, while Samsung and SK hynix stay in the 4F² camp. The 2027–2028 supply conclusion stands either way, since the shortage is driven by the HBM conversion and by demand rather than cell architecture; the split will shape the supply curve after 2028.
The honest caveat: the HBM supply-volume booking, ASP, shipment guidance and HBM4-share information comes from Samsung’s earnings call; its official recording and materials are linked in sourceUrls. Some details also draw on IT Home, ifeng and BigGo Finance’s call coverage. The financials follow Yonhap’s reading of the official disclosure. On the 60–70% capacity target, Wccftech renders it as covered by the current ten LTAs while Yonhap calls it a goal for 2030; we follow Yonhap’s more conservative reading.
What to watch
- Late January 2027: Samsung’s board sets the next shareholder-return policy; the market wants a buyback.
- H1 2027: HBM4E mass production, ramping in H2 — Samsung says it shipped the industry’s first HBM4E samples in May.
- Around end of 2026: CXMT’s 4F² server memory launch, the window into a possible third supply pole.